No. 83September 29, 2026
Small gains could be wiped out in 2027
Some states that cover nonmedical home care through Medicaid have marginally increased workers’ wages, but those small gains could be wiped out in 2027.
1 development · 1 cited source
The question
Can home-care wage increases keep nonmedical help available as workforce demand grows and Medicaid cuts approach?
Background
In 2024, the national median pay for home care aides was $16.78 an hour, or $34,900 per year. The federal government forecasts that the nation will need more than 5 million home care aides by 2034, compared with 4.3 million today.
The read
Together, these show that some states have marginally increased workers’ wages, while small gains could be wiped out in 2027 and spending cuts will put pressure on cash-strapped states to cut home- and community-based services. The open question is how cash-strapped states will respond to pressure to cut home- and community-based services.
What happens next
Will states that cover nonmedical home care through Medicaid raise workers’ wages before the cuts take effect in 2027?
What could change this read
This read would change with evidence about how states respond to pressure to cut home- and community-based services.
Developments in this issue
Reference paths
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